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Tag

randomness

Explore 6 cognitive biases related to this topic.

Gambler’s Fallacy

11 min read

The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that past random events make future independent events more likely to be the opposite, such as expecting a tail after many consecutive heads.

Cognitive Biases / Misunderstanding independence

/ Monte Carlo Fallacy

Hot-Hand Fallacy

11 min read

The hot-hand fallacy is the belief that a person who has experienced a streak of success is more likely to continue succeeding, even when outcomes are independent and random.

Cognitive Biases / Misinterpretation of randomness

/ Hot Hand Effect

Illusion of Control

5 min read

Overestimating our influence over outcomes.

Cognitive Biases

Clustering Illusion

2 min read

The clustering illusion is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable 'streaks' or 'clusters' arising in small samples from random distributions to be non-random.

Statistical Biases

/ Hot hand fallacy (related)

Apophenia

2 min read

Apophenia is the tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things.

Statistical Biases

/ Patternicity

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

2 min read

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is an informal fallacy which is committed when differences in data are ignored, but similarities are overemphasized. From this reasoning, a false conclusion is inferred.

Statistical Biases

/ Clustering illusion (related)