Dunning-Kruger
Effect

Pessimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes and underestimate the likelihood of positive ones, especially for oneself.

The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that past random events make future independent events more likely to be the opposite, such as expecting a tail after many consecutive heads.

The hot-hand fallacy is the belief that a person who has experienced a streak of success is more likely to continue succeeding, even when outcomes are independent and random.

Regression to the mean is the statistical tendency for extreme performances or measurements to be followed by more average ones, often misinterpreted as real change or the effect of interventions.

The base rate fallacy is the tendency to ignore or underweight general statistical information (base rates) in favor of vivid or specific case details when judging probability.

The conjunction fallacy is the tendency to judge a specific, detailed scenario as more likely than a more general one that contains it, violating basic probability rules.