Restraint Bias: The Overconfidence in Willpower

Restraint Bias is the tendency to overestimate our ability to control impulsive behavior and resist temptation.

The Psychology Behind It

We judge our self-control when we're in a "cold" state (calm, rational) but face temptation in a "hot" state (aroused, emotional). We fail to predict how much our willpower will be depleted or how strong the temptation will feel in the moment.

Real-World Examples

1. Dieting

Dieters keep junk food in the house, confident they won't eat it, then give in when stressed or tired.

2. Addiction Recovery

Recovering addicts expose themselves to triggers, overestimating their ability to resist, leading to relapse.

3. Procrastination

Students believe they'll resist social media while studying, then find themselves scrolling for hours.

Consequences

• Relapse: Exposure to temptation leads to failure
• Poor Planning: Not creating environments that support goals
• Shame Cycles: Repeated failure damages self-esteem

How to Mitigate It

1. Remove Temptation: Don't rely on willpower - change your environment
2. Plan for Hot States: Assume you'll be tired, stressed, or emotional
3. Use Commitment Devices: Lock yourself into good behavior

Conclusion

Restraint Bias teaches us that willpower is limited. The best way to resist temptation is to avoid it entirely.