Zero-Sum Bias

Also known as: Fixed pie bias

Zero-sum bias is the intuitive belief that resources are fixed and that for one person to gain, another must lose. It ignores the possibility of "non-zero-sum" outcomes (win-win situations) created by trade, cooperation, or innovation.

Social Biases

2 min read

experimental Evidence


Zero-Sum Bias

The Psychology Behind It

For much of human history, resources were fixed. There was only so much land, so much prey, and so many mates. If your tribe got the land, my tribe lost it. Our brains evolved to detect and survive in this zero-sum environment.

However, the modern economy is largely non-zero-sum. Through technology and trade, we create new value. When I buy a phone from Apple, I get a device I value more than the money, and Apple gets money they value more than the device. We both win. Yet, our stone-age brains struggle to grasp this. We instinctively feel that if the rich are getting richer, the poor must be getting poorer (which is not necessarily true; both can get richer, though perhaps at different rates).

Real-World Examples

Immigration

Many people believe that immigrants "steal jobs." This assumes a fixed number of jobs (the "Lump of Labor Fallacy"). In reality, immigrants also consume goods and start businesses, creating new jobs and expanding the economy.

International Trade

Politicians often frame trade deficits as "losing" money to another country. Economists view trade as mutually beneficial specialization that lowers prices and increases variety for everyone.

Negotiation

Novice negotiators assume that every dollar the other side gets is a dollar they lose. Expert negotiators look for ways to "expand the pie" so both sides get more of what they value.

Consequences

Zero-sum bias can lead to:

  • Conflict: If we view life as a battle for fixed resources, we become hostile and uncooperative.
  • Poverty: Societies that discourage trade and innovation (due to zero-sum thinking) remain poor.
  • Envy: We resent the success of others instead of seeing it as an inspiration or a benefit to the community.

How to Mitigate It

Look for the win-win.

  1. Identify the Synergies: Ask, "How can we both get what we want?" Often, parties have different priorities (e.g., one wants money, the other wants time).
  2. Understand Wealth Creation: Recognize that wealth is not a fixed pie; it is a growing garden. Innovation creates value out of thin air (ideas).
  3. Challenge the "Fixed Pie" Assumption: When you feel threatened by someone's gain, pause. Does their gain actually take anything from you?

Conclusion

Zero-sum bias is a scarcity mindset in an abundant world. It turns potential partners into enemies. By recognizing the power of cooperation and innovation, we can shift from fighting over scraps to baking a bigger pie.

Mitigation Strategies

Integrative Bargaining: In any negotiation, add more issues to the table. This allows for trading off things you don't care about for things you do.

Effectiveness: high

Difficulty: moderate

Abundance Mindset Training: Consciously practice gratitude and recognize the non-rivalrous nature of many goods (like knowledge or love).

Effectiveness: medium

Difficulty: moderate

Potential Decision Harms

Nations engage in trade wars that hurt both economies because leaders view the global economy as a zero-sum game.

critical Severity

Couples keep score of who does what, turning the relationship into a transaction rather than a partnership.

major Severity

Key Research Studies

The zero-sum game of social status

Meegan, D. V. (2010) Frontiers in Neuroscience

Discusses how zero-sum bias is rooted in our evolutionary history of status competition.

Read Study →


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