Declinism

Also known as: Declinist bias

Declinism is the cognitive bias where people believe that the past was better and that the future is getting worse. It is a combination of rosy retrospection (idealizing the past) and the negativity bias (focusing on present threats).

Cognitive Biases

2 min read

observational Evidence


Declinism

The Psychology Behind It

"The world is going to hell in a handbasket." People have been saying this for thousands of years. Ancient Roman texts complain about the "softness" of the younger generation and the loss of traditional values. Declinism is a perennial human belief.

It arises from two main factors:

  1. The Reminiscence Bump: We form our strongest memories in late adolescence and early adulthood (ages 15-25). We associate this time with peak music, culture, and morality. As we age, everything that changes from that baseline feels like a decline.
  2. Negativity Bias: We pay more attention to bad news (which signals danger) than good news. Since the media focuses on crises, we perceive the world as becoming more dangerous, even if statistics show it is becoming safer.

Real-World Examples

"Kids These Days"

Every generation complains that the next generation is lazy, entitled, and disrespectful. This has been documented back to 600 BC. It is not a reflection of the kids, but of the aging observers.

Moral Decline

Surveys consistently show that a majority of people believe "moral values" are declining in their country, regardless of the actual crime rates or charitable giving statistics.

The "Golden Age"

Political movements often appeal to a lost "Golden Age" that needs to be restored. This age is usually mythical, constructed by filtering out the poverty, disease, and injustice that actually existed.

Consequences

Declinism can lead to:

  • Pessimism: It creates a sense of hopelessness and apathy about the future.
  • Resistance to Change: New technologies and cultural shifts are viewed with suspicion rather than curiosity.
  • Political Reactionism: It fuels movements that seek to "turn back the clock," often at the expense of progress and minority rights.

How to Mitigate It

To fight declinism, look at the data, not the vibes.

  1. Check the Trend Lines: Look at long-term statistics on life expectancy, poverty, violence, and literacy. In almost every metric, the world is getting better, not worse.
  2. Beware the "Good Old Days": When you feel nostalgic, ask, "Would I really want to live in that era without antibiotics, the internet, or civil rights?"
  3. Consume Balanced Media: Seek out "constructive journalism" that reports on solutions and progress, not just disasters.

Conclusion

Declinism is a trick of the mind that turns our personal aging process into a story about the world. The world is not ending; it is just changing. And in many ways, it is improving.

Mitigation Strategies

Data Visualization: Look at graphs like those from 'Our World in Data' that show the massive improvements in human well-being over the last century.

Effectiveness: high

Difficulty: moderate

The 'Veil of Ignorance': Ask yourself: If you didn't know who you would be (man/woman, rich/poor, black/white), when in history would you choose to be born? Most would choose today.

Effectiveness: high

Difficulty: moderate

Potential Decision Harms

Investors may hoard cash or buy gold instead of investing in the market because they believe the economy is on the brink of permanent collapse.

major Severity

Constant belief in societal collapse contributes to anxiety and depression.

moderate Severity

Key Research Studies

Kids these days: Why the youth of today seem lacking

Protzko, J., & Schooler, J. W. (2019) Science Advances

Showed that people project their own current traits onto the past, leading to the illusion that children are declining in those traits.

Read Study →


Related Biases

Explore these related cognitive biases to deepen your understanding

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Euphemism

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Procrastination

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Procrastination is the action of unnecessarily and voluntarily delaying or postponing something despite knowing that there will be negative consequences for doing so.

Cognitive Biases

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Time-Saving Bias

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The time-saving bias describes the tendency of people to misestimate the time that could be saved (or lost) when increasing (or decreasing) speed.

Cognitive Biases

/ Time-saving illusion