Normalcy Bias: "It Can't Happen Here"
Normalcy Bias is the tendency to believe that things will always function the way they normally have and to underestimate the likelihood of disaster.
The Psychology Behind It
Our brains crave stability and predictability. Acknowledging that disaster could strike creates anxiety, so we minimize the threat. We also rely on past experience: "It's never happened before, so it won't happen now."
Real-World Examples
1. Natural Disasters
Residents refusing to evacuate before hurricanes because "we've weathered storms before."
2. Financial Crises
Investors ignoring warning signs because "the market always recovers."
3. Pandemic Response
People dismissing early COVID-19 warnings because "it's just like the flu."
Consequences
- Loss of Life: Failure to evacuate or prepare for disasters
- Financial Ruin: Ignoring market crashes or business threats
- Organizational Failure: Companies ignoring disruptive competitors
How to Mitigate It
- Scenario Planning: Actively imagine worst-case scenarios
- Heed Experts: Listen to warnings from those who study risks
- Prepare Anyway: Have emergency plans even if you think they're unlikely
Conclusion
Normalcy Bias is dangerous because it prevents preparation. The time to prepare for disaster is before it happens, not during.