risk

The base rate fallacy is the tendency to ignore or underweight general statistical information (base rates) in favor of vivid or specific case details when judging probability.

Underestimating the likelihood of disaster.

Ambiguity aversion is the tendency to prefer known risks over unknown or poorly defined risks, even when the expected outcomes are similar.

The ostrich effect is the tendency to avoid or ignore negative information, especially about risks or losses, in order to reduce anxiety.

Automation bias is the tendency to over-trust computer systems and automated recommendations, discounting or overlooking contradictory human judgment or real‑world evidence.

The ludic fallacy is the misuse of games to model real-life situations.

Neglect of probability is the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.

The ambiguity effect is a cognitive bias where decision makers avoid options that are considered to be ambiguous or to have missing information.

Thinking "it won't happen to me".

We judge the probability of events by how easily we can recall examples.