Tag

forecasting

Explore 5 cognitive biases related to this topic.

Focusing Effect

5 min read

Overemphasizing one aspect while ignoring others.

Cognitive Biases

/ Focusing Illusion

Impact Bias

5 min read

Overestimating emotional impact of future events.

Cognitive Biases

/ Affective Forecasting Error

Projection Bias

5 min read

Assuming our future preferences will match our current ones.

Cognitive Biases

Optimism Bias

11 min read

Optimism bias is the tendency to underestimate the likelihood of negative events and overestimate the likelihood of positive ones, especially for ourselves.

Cognitive Biases / Risk and expectation

/ Unrealistic Optimism

Hindsight Bias

11 min read

Hindsight bias is the tendency to see past events as having been more predictable than they actually were, believing "I knew it all along" after the outcome is known.

Memory Biases / Outcome and memory distortion

/ "I-Knew-It-All-Along" Effect