Skip to main content

Category

Cognitive Biases

Impact level

2 / 5

Category Cognitive Biases

Impact 2 / 5

COGNITIVE BIASES

Optimism
Bias

A cognitive bias that causes someone to believe that they themselves are less likely to experience a negative event.

Also known as: Unrealistic Optimism

Share this

X / TwitterLinkedInFacebook

Cognitive processing

System 1 (fast, intuitive). Biases often lean on quick judgments (System 1) unless you slow down and analyze (System 2).

Evidence & time

Evidence strength: experimental. Typical read: about 3 min.

Catch it next time

Practical steps for Optimism Bias

1
Perform a "pre-mortem" analysis
high effectivenessmoderate difficulty

Tape this to your desk.

02

Common triggers

→

Planning for the future

→

Assessing personal risk

03

Typical contexts

→

Health behaviors (smoking, etc.)

→

Project planning

04

Mitigation strategies

Perform a "pre-mortem" analysis

Effectiveness: high

Difficulty: moderate

05

Potential decision harms

Underestimating risks

major Severity

Lack of preparation

moderate Severity